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Every summer, somewhere in the South Pacific, a port closes because a cyclone is coming. Ships slow down or divert, containers on the wharf are lashed down or left exposed, and cargo that was due in a week arrives in three. You can't control the weather, but you can control how exposed your shipment is to it.
This guide explains when and where Pacific cyclones occur, how they disrupt shipping, and how to plan and protect cargo through the season. For the wider picture, see our complete guide to shipping to the Pacific Islands.
Key takeaways
- The South-west Pacific tropical cyclone season runs from 1 November to 30 April, usually peaking from January to March.
- Vanuatu and New Caledonia typically see the most cyclone activity, but every island group in the belt is exposed.
- The 2026–27 regional outlook is due for public release on 14 October 2026. Read it before planning time-critical cargo.
- Cyclones cause port closures, vessel diversions, missed connections and damage to cargo waiting on wharves.
- Stock up before the peak, build buffers, pack for heavy weather and insure properly.
When and where cyclones happen
The South-west Pacific tropical cyclone season officially runs from 1 November to 30 April. The Fiji Meteorological Service, which operates the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre in Nadi, notes that activity usually peaks between January and March, that cyclones occasionally form in October and May, and that out-of-season storms can't be ruled out.
Exposure varies by location. Regional outlooks prepared by forecasting centres across the Southwest Pacific have noted that Vanuatu and New Caledonia typically experience the greatest activity, with about two or three named cyclones passing close each year on average. Fiji, Tonga, the Solomon Islands, Samoa, Niue and the Cook Islands are all regularly affected. Mainland Papua New Guinea, close to the equator, is less exposed, though its southern islands are not immune.
Why each season differs
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation strongly influences where cyclones form. As a general pattern, El Niño conditions tend to shift activity eastwards, towards Samoa, Tonga and French Polynesia, while La Niña conditions tend to concentrate it further west, around the Coral Sea, Vanuatu and New Caledonia. That's why seasonal outlooks matter: the islands at highest risk change from year to year.
Read the seasonal outlook
Each October, Pacific meteorological services release a regional tropical cyclone outlook, prepared with the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre Nadi, the Fiji Meteorological Service, Earth Sciences New Zealand (formed when NIWA merged with GNS Science in July 2025) and SPREP. The 2026–27 outlook is due for public release on 14 October 2026. For comparison, the 2025–26 outlook expected five to nine named cyclones in the Southwest Pacific, with normal or elevated activity for Vanuatu and New Caledonia.
The Fiji Meteorological Service's tropical cyclone outlook and your destination's national meteorological service are the places to check. During the season, follow official warnings rather than social media.
How cyclones disrupt shipping
- Port closures. Harbour masters close ports and order vessels to leave or stay out as a cyclone approaches.
- Vessel delays and diversions. Ships slow down, wait out storms or skip ports, and the knock-on effect can disrupt a whole rotation for weeks.
- Missed connections. Cargo waiting at a hub for a feeder can sit there until the backlog clears. See why transhipment matters.
- Damage on the wharf. Containers stacked on open terminals can be damaged by wind, flooding and storm surge.
- Damage at sea. Heavy weather tests cargo securing. Poorly braced cargo shifts and breaks.
- Landside disruption. Flooded roads, damaged bridges and power outages delay clearance and delivery.
- Post-storm demand. After a major cyclone, relief and rebuilding cargo competes for limited space.
How to plan around the season
Time critical shipments
Where you can, move critical cargo before December or after April. For businesses, that often means building up stock by sea in the months before the peak. For projects, it means scheduling heavy lifts and beach landings outside January to March. See project cargo in the Pacific.
Build buffers
Add extra time to every cyclone-season shipment, particularly those involving transhipment or outer islands. Don't book an event, an opening or a contract deadline on the assumption that a container will arrive on its scheduled date.
Watch the Christmas squeeze
The pre-Christmas peak in personal-effects containers overlaps with the start of the season. Book early, so your cargo isn't rolled to a later sailing that lands in the riskiest months.
Have documents and clearance ready
Cargo cleared quickly spends less time exposed on the wharf. Pre-lodge customs entries, secure permits early and arrange collection before the vessel arrives.
Protecting your cargo
- Pack and secure for heavy weather. Brace and lash cargo inside containers so nothing can shift, and use moisture absorbers for long voyages.
- Waterproof vulnerable goods. Shrink-wrap pallets and protect electronics and paper goods against moisture.
- Use sealed containers rather than open-top or flat racks for weather-sensitive cargo where possible.
- Collect promptly so containers don't sit on exposed wharves longer than necessary.
- Choose FCL for sensitive goods, so your cargo isn't held in a CFS waiting for others. See FCL vs LCL to the Pacific Islands.
Insurance and general average
Marine cargo insurance matters more in cyclone season, not less. Heavy weather damage, storm surge at ports and the extra handling of diverted cargo all create risk. If a vessel suffers a casualty and the carrier declares general average, every cargo owner on board must contribute to the shared cost before their goods are released, and uninsured owners have to provide that security themselves. Insure the full journey, including transhipment and storage, and check how the policy treats delay, which is usually excluded.
After a cyclone hits
- Contact your forwarder for vessel and port status rather than relying on published schedules.
- Expect backlogs at ports and in clearance for days or weeks.
- Inspect cargo on arrival, photograph any damage and notify your insurer and carrier promptly.
- Be patient with relief cargo priorities. Essential supplies rightly move first.
Frequently asked questions
When is Pacific cyclone season?
From 1 November to 30 April in the South-west Pacific, with activity usually peaking from January to March. Cyclones occasionally form in October or May.
Which Pacific countries are most at risk?
Vanuatu and New Caledonia typically see the most activity, but Fiji, Tonga, the Solomon Islands, Samoa and other island groups are regularly affected. Each season's risk pattern differs, so check the annual outlook.
Should I avoid shipping in cyclone season altogether?
Not necessarily. Most shipments arrive safely. Avoid the peak for time-critical or fragile cargo where you can, build in buffers, and insure properly.
Does insurance cover cyclone delays?
Usually not. Marine cargo policies cover physical loss and damage and general average contributions, but losses from delay are typically excluded.
How this guide was researched
This guide draws on Fiji Meteorological Service seasonal outlook guidance, Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlooks prepared by regional forecasting centres and Earth Sciences New Zealand, SPREP information on the 2026–27 outlook, and the author's experience managing cargo disrupted by Pacific cyclones. For current warnings, always follow your national meteorological service.
Written by
Peyton Brown
Senior Editor of The Pennsy's Pacific shipping desk, with more than a decade in Pacific freight operations, documentation and customs coordination across Papua New Guinea, Fiji and the Solomon Islands.
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